Tag: Middle East

Thoughts on the Afghanistan Situation

I won’t drag this post out because I’m not any sort of military or political expert that is qualified to go in-depth on such matters.

Also, I may put out a controversial viewpoint or two, but that is in keeping with the no-pulled-punches tone of this lil’ blog.

So, unless you’ve been hiding under a rock (actually a LOT more likely in this age of isolation), you will have seen/heard that the Taliban have re-taken control of the country of Afghanistan in a ridiculously short space of time with no real opposition or fighting. This happens immediately after the withdrawal of the last of the US/British military presence in the region, twenty years after they first went in to push out the likes of the Taliban and Al Qaeda and to create a safer environment that wasn’t a breeding ground for terrorist organisations that could use Afghanistan as a base to launch international attacks.

The news media is riding a wave of shock this morning, as people try to come to terms with just how rapid this takeover was. Various defence officials have been interviewed and the finger-pointing has already began, with interviewers demanding to know if this is a failure for the US and British governments, and what they are going to do about it.

Well, here comes my first controversial opinion because I say we do nothing about this at all. Our governments and armed forces should never have gotten involved with Afghanistan in the first place for multiple reasons. Firstly, the West shouldn’t be interfering with other countries and overthrowing their governments to install others who are deemed to be more agreeable or cooperative. I wonder when those in power will realise that maybe the reason we experience so many terrorist attacks and hatred directed towards us is because we waltzed into their backyards in the first place and presumed to tell them what to do. Pretty sure that wouldn’t go down so well if the roles were to be reversed, would it? But perhaps our more advanced nations and more technologically-capable military forces give leaders a superiority complex whereby they feel justified in meddling in the affairs of far-off countries while it absolutely would not be permitted the other way round…

Don’t get me wrong, I know that the likes of Al Qaeda will still launch attacks at Western cities regardless but there has to be ways (in this age of advanced surveillance/intelligence) of combatting terrorism without destabilising entire countries and committing our armed forced to decades of security detail.

I often like to say that we, as a race, give ourselves far too much credit when it comes to intelligence and learning from mistakes. History is littered with the failures of supposedly superior, better-resourced nations when they go to war, in a country like Afghanistan, against guerrilla fighters who know the terrain and are prepared to die for their independence. The Soviets failed in Afghanistan. The US famously failed in Vietnam (another war that involved meddling in foreign politics and installing new leaders). And – more recently – we have the Iraq fiasco, which resulted in the birth of ISIS and a series of horrific terrorist attacks on home soil, and more war in the Middle East. I’d like to believe that Afghanistan will finally teach us to mind our own business and stop trying to police the world, but I doubt it. I only have to look to Libya where our Prime Minister at the time sent the RAF (along with other NATO forces) to bomb the country and assist in the overthrow of Colonel Gaddafi…before doing nothing else and allowing Libya to devolve into a lawless terrorist breeding ground.

Obviously, there are a lot of angry people who are upset at the current events in Afghanistan and the Western military withdrawal as they see all the military sacrifice, lost lives, and billions spent on investing into Afghan security as a collossal waste of time, as well as an affront to the lives of the loved ones who died in combat. I’m not going to dispute that as I have no right to comment on the losses of others or how they view what’s happening right now as a result.

But what I would say is that returning to Afghanistan and needlessly throwing away more lives in order to justify those already lost just doesn’t seem like the right thing to do. One of the worst things we can do is to push on with lost causes or commitments to lengthy, grindy wars just to save face and say that we didn’t give up. Sometimes, it’s better to know when to quit and walk away – not out of weakness, but out of intelligence. Some say that we should stay until the “job is done”. The job will never be done. The West will always be unwelcome occupiers, veiling political ambitions behind the guise of protecting civilians. They don’t want us there, and no amount of military training or investment on our part will ever create security forces that will fight with as much passion or conviction as the likes of the Taliban who will literally fight to the death for freedom as they see it. Getting involved with these countries is a commitment to stay forever, because a) the enemy simply bides their time and waits for the West to grow weary and leave and b) new governments and security forces grow reliant on the presence of Western troops and equipment. We already saw this happen in Iraq a few years ago when Iraqi security forces ran away from advancing ISIS forces – again, after years of training and investment from the West.

I absolutely don’t agree with the way that many Middle Eastern countries operate with backwards laws and outdated, barbaric attitudes towards women and homosexuality but we have to realise that these aren’t our countries, and it isn’t down to us to parachute into every part of the globe that persecutes these groups and overthrow governments left, right, and centre until the world conforms to our vision of how people should behave and what views they should hold. More to point, lets not act like we live in the Garden of Eden ourselves because Western society has a LOT of societal problems of its own, they’re just not as obvious and pressing as physical, military violence.

And don’t get me started on those screaming for troops to return to Afghanistan and take back the country, because I’m fairly confident that those shouting the loudest are keyboard warriors that wouldn’t want to go and do such a dangerous job themselves. They want others to go and put their lives at risk for the sake of their outrage and that’s utter bollocks as far as I’m concerned.

Those are just my thoughts. As I say, I’m no expert and could well be completely wrong, but I’ve always maintained that we shouldn’t be getting involved in the internal affairs of foreign countries. Fighting back against terrorist organisations that pose a direct and immediate threat to Western shores…yes, but we need to ensure that our actions don’t also involve destabilising entire regions, leaving power vaccuums behind, or committing our forces to decades of hanging on. We also need to stop presuming that we are right to walk into other peoples countries and start making changes, as it’s only us that seem to suffer for it in the long term.

Oil prices are rising but who will suffer?

The man in the street of course. Not the politicians who are fueling (no pun intended) the latest potential oil crisis. I think Linkin Park nailed it when they used this line in the song “Hands Held High”:

When you can’t put gas in your tank
These fuckers are laughing their way
To the bank and cashing their check

Yes, it’s the ongoing Yemen/Saudi Arabia/Iran/USA crisis that you may have seen in the news. Saudi oil refineries were hit by drone strikes that caused significant damage, with the knock-on effect being that global oil supplies have been cut by 5% and prices are going to go up at the pumps. Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed responsibility for the attacks while the US has pointed the finger at current global sparring partner, Iran. Obviously, Iran has denied any involvement despite the US allegedly having evidence to prove that the drones came from there and not Yemen.

In short, it’s you and I who will have to pay the price when fuel prices rise. If we’re lucky, that’s all that will happen. The worst case scenario is that fuel stations run out or have intermittent supplies – a situation that could well become reality should the Saudi facilities suffer further attacks and consequent damage. Then we really will feel the squeeze. It’s been approximately ten years since the last such shortage hit us here in the UK and that time, it was down to a national blockade and industrial striking. Prices soared and pumps ran dry as motorists had to endure miserable queues, fraying tempers and the not knowing when you would next be able to fill up.

A very sneaky and convenient thing happened when the shortage was finally resolved though. Prices went back down but NOT all the way down to where they were before the blockade began. If the price hike was due to the shortage then there’s no reason why the price couldn’t have returned to where it had been. Clearly, the oil giants saw the opportunity to sneak a permanent increase through while customers were just relieved to be able to get fuel again and at a lower price.

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If I were to put on my conspiracy hat, I might even suggest that the whole thing was orchestrated on purpose to get that price increase through when there was no other justifiable reason to do so…

But back to current affairs, this latest strain on our wallets will be the direct result of world leaders once again waving their dicks about and playing power games, heedless of how the ordinary people will feel the impact of their supreme arrogance. The situation is of course complicated and I’m not going to pretend that I’m an expert on what is happening but I’ll try and summarise.

  • The Houthi rebels fighting for control of Yemen are backed by Iran
  • Their opponents – the overthrown Yemenese government of President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi – are continuing to fight back, backed by multiple Sunni Arab states.
  • Saudi Arabia are the principle backer of Mr Hadi’s government and the Saudis are, of course, aligned with the US who supply them arms.

So the core battle on the ground is a war between two different religious factors. But the far more dangerous aspect of Yemen’s war is the proxy war between outside states that overshadows the original conflict. As a predominately Shia country, Iran is of course going to support the Houthi rebels, especially when it means gaining greater influence in the region. Iran’s enemies – the Saudis – aren’t interested in that happening in the slightest and so they are naturally attempting to restore President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi’s government, get rid of the Houthis and prevent Iranian influence from creeping into a neighbouring state.

But there is another conflict taking place that is having a direct influence on the war in Yemen – the cold war between Iran and the US. Donald Trump continues to throw stones in glass houses as he takes a hardline stance with Iran which I’m sure some of Trump’s supporters and right-wing types appreciate. Don’t fuck with ‘murica! Of course, there is the irony of the President being robust with a country that he has called the world’s number one “state of terror”…the same President who was about to have peace talks with the Taliban, on US soil no less. Unbelievable.

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However you view Trump’s stance on dealing with countries like Iran, the facts still speak for themselves. Since tearing up the nuclear deal and ramping up the sanctions on Tehran, Iran has become increasingly hostile. They have resumed enriching uranium and breached the previously imposed limit as defined by the nuclear deal. They have been accused of sabotaging oil tankers in the region and have seized others. All of this will have unfavourable effects on ordinary people when oil supply lines are disrupted.

Between this and Trump’s other actions on the world stage, he is causing a lot of chaos and conflict. It’s almost as if he is moving through a jungle and using a stick to prod tarantulas and snakes. Prod them enough and they will strike back but what else can you expect? Iran has its back to the wall – its economy suffocating beneath the weight of sanctions – so what else does anybody expect them to do? Simply keel over and do what an outside state demands them to? Would you expect the US to do that?

I’m not defending Iran because they are in no way innocent in all of this but this is yet another instance of a nuclear-equipped country telling another country that they aren’t allowed nuclear weapons. It’s double-standards of the highest order and you can see why the likes of Iran and North Korea don’t take too kindly to US and European insistence that they don’t create nuclear weapons of their own. America isn’t the shining defender of justice and liberty that it likes to portray itself as because, at the end of the day, their administration’s involvement in proxy wars and meddling in foreign spheres of influence is only ever to gain or maintain input on the global sphere of influence.

It should also be said that while we will be bitching and moaning about fuel prices, the real suffering is taking place in Yemen where innocent people are being killed and their lives utterly destroyed as religious conflict and foreign policy translates into constant airstrikes and the savage destruction of their home. I can’t even begin to imagine what it’s like to live in such conditions. So perhaps spare a thought for them next time you are feeling irate about have to spend a few more pounds to put petrol in your comfy German executive saloon.